If as seem likely now that Mr Netenyahu succeeds in proving to
the Israelis president , that his is the most likely party to
form a government ,the conjecture posited above seem quite
He will initially , at least , try to curry favour with the Obama persidency.
The important word is " Initially ".
It should be recalled that Netenyahu previously resiled his position on a two state solution with President Hussein of Jordan.
There is no reason to suspect that he may not do the same to Obama.
Mr Mitchell is a patient and wise man . His mettle was tested in N Ireland . And it was not found wanting. The IRA decommissioned their weapons and the two polar opposites finally sat down together in parliament .
The case in Israel is quite different despite the apparent
similarities , both sectarian and other interests playing out
Mr Netenyahu's right wing and Zionism may place him in a position which is untenable with the somewhat nebulous Obama position.
If Netenyahu sees some wriggle room in an illdefined Obama position , he will undoubtedly exploit it to his own ends.
Econonically Netenyahu was formerlly at least associated with
an open economy with low taxation and moving jobs to lower wage
That culture - Milton Freeman and the Chicago Boys has proved globally catastrophic, and whether Mr Netenyahu remains a disciple , if covertly so , is as yet undetermined.
The vexed question about whether Iran is developing a Nuclear
bomb., or whether it is developing a nuclear capability in
tandem with its power plants is probably a moot point.
As Mr Chirac said previously in terms of the 25000 nuclear warheads scattered globally , and Iran's rather precocious stage in developing a nuclear bomb , " even if they have one of even two , the bomb would not be 200 metres in the air before Tehran was razed."
What will be most interesting will be how Mr Netenyahu dealls
with the Israeli bourgeoisie , Will he be a Napoleon figure
Will he be presidential , or political.
Will he be bellicose or balming.
The other question and one far more pressing for the Palestinians is whether he will expand the settlements - up down- or latterally.
I the past few days there has been a further land grab from the Plaestinians. Is this an augery for a potential Netenyahu persidency.
The up/ down expansion would abate to some estent the growing imbalance in the dempgraphics whereby the Palestinians are headed for population supremacy sometime inthe 2020s'
A lateral expansion demands taking land directly from the Palestinains . That this contarvenes the Geneva conventions and the 1967 settlement seems irrelevant to the Israeli Right .
The omens are poor. Netenyahu is most likely to take the other Right wing parties with him in forming a coalition. These other parties include the ultra right wing religious zionist parties, who are as vehement in their Judaistc fundamentalism as the Islamic fundamentalism in the form of Hizbullah .
If the problem were to be contained , and remained a regional issue , this might allow the West to stand back and look on ponderously as we have done , even through the UN.
Nothing short of a combined multilateral f monitering body to oversee Israeli expansionism, a force to moniter the border crossings between Gaza and Egypt . and freedom of access between Israel and Gaza, Gaza and the West Bank, . and to continue to moniter Iranian nuclear development is necesary.
This force, of multi discliplinary professionss should be drawn from the EU, US, UN .and it should be installed with haste , and determination of purpose.
It should also be equipt with a realistic manadate and suffecient armatarium to enforce this mandate . It should have suffecient detterance in terms of militarism to constitute a real countervailig force to whatever party chose to digress from the mandate .
One is not overly optimistic that any of this can happen.