The Assembly Election Results in UP have virtually shattered all the premeditated orientations. The apprehensions of the psephologists about the hung assembly have now been proved totally wrong. The elections prove that political pundits have still not been able to discover fitting instrument to gauge the moods of electorates on the eve of elections. They rely more on sponsored or paid T V Channels which is bound to be misleading and erroneous. Most of the time such predictions are used as a tool to create some sort of wave for a particular political party.
Anyway, coming back to results the majority gained by Samajwadi Party has hugely disappointed all conscious electorates who voted in hope of gaining better governance. They are stunned to see that Samajwadi Party which was routed by Bahujan Samaj Party in previous Assembly elections on ground that it promoted "Goondaraj" ( law of the jungle), being party run by criminal elements, have once again managed to be in the driver's seat.This magical transformation , at least in the eyes of electorates, which enabled Samajwadi Party to gain the power is something that needs to be brought under the lens.
Let's begin with the speculations about the mass voting fraud. I do not have concrete evidence to sustain the facts favouring the mass voting fraud but on reports based on hearsay gathered from public meetings of various political parties taken place in the aftermath of the declaration of results such a possibility is not a remote possibility. After all, it's not entirely impossible to tamper with the voting machines. Remember, Uttar Pradesh is a state wherein murders can take place even inside the jails! Against this backdrop, even though it might appear far-stretched, one cannot ignore such grim possibilities. One is really baffled as how come some people with serious criminal charges have also managed to win with huge margin?
The Election Commission needs to explore the possibilities in this regard. I mean it should try to ensure that electronic voting machines are not being manipulated during or after the voting session. The Election Commission also needs to grasp this fact very well there has been many instances in American presidential elections wherein heavy voting fraud took place despite tough measures to prevent it. Even the recently concluded presidential elections in Russia are not above the allegations of voter fraud. If that can be the case in Russia and United States, one can certainly be forced to view such unexpected results with great degree of suspicion.
Now let's analyze the mass voting done by huge Muslim population in favour of Samajwadi Party. The BSP's vote bank of Dalits and Samajwadi Party's Muslim vote bank is pretty secure because of the presence of herd mentality exhibited by people dominating these two very communities. Even though both Congress and SP love to enter into appeasement of Muslims, there is subtle difference in their methodology. The Congress, unlike Samajwadi Party in tune with regional sentiments, is party with national character with an ideology that it retained from days of freedom movement. It's pretty alert about ramifications of cashing-in-on the lesser sentiments of Muslim in hardcore way. That's not the case with Samajwadi Party. Having just one prime goal of ruling Uttar Pradesh, it entered in all cheap gimmicks to woo the Muslims. If you see its past history it has always been in close proximity with lesser concerns related with Muslim societies spread across the Uttar Pradesh.
In other words, the Samajwadi Party proved to be more shrewd in making use of the insecurities enveloping the Muslim population. The Congress, on the other hand, failed to promote its shamelessness in an effective way. Needless to state, the major factor which ensured the defeat of Congress had been flawed policies pursued by its government at the Centre. It's also evident that if both BJP and Congress wish to fulfill their dreams of being in the driver's seat, they need to be pretty more strategic in ensuring Muslim votes. They need to shatter the herd mentality present in the Muslim sections. They need to make believe that better future lies with them and not with parties devoid of national character and strong ideology.
Let's see why future of Uttar Pradesh seems to be doomed unless Samajwadi Party under the youthful leadership of Akhilesh Singh performs incredibly well. That seems to be a herculean task given the inherent contradictions that exist within Samajwadi Party. It like BSP is not guided by ideological instincts but rests on patriarchal tendencies. It's guided by interests and not principles. The conflict of interest is bound to hit the party sooner or later. It remains to be seen how Akhilesh manages to curb the nefarious designs of people lurking around him as advisers. One needs to recollect that when Samajwadi was dethroned some years back the main element that caused the eliminations was its protectionist attitude towards the criminal elements. It nurtured criminal means as the valid method to get the thing done.
I am really stunned over the wisdom depicted by the electorates in U P that it found Samajwadi Party as the ideal alternative!! So one thing is clear: Electorates went in for Samajwadi Party not as an ideal alternative but as a mean to get rid of malpractices prevalent in Mayaraj! However, in my eyes, choosing Samajwadi Party over Bahujan Samjwadi Party is like finding "Naagnath" better than "Saapnath". It's like having few seconds of momentary pleasure when you scratch with nails the parts affected by scabies!!! Undoubtedly, electorates of Uttar Pradesh depicted a great deal of immaturity in demonstrating their discretion ability.Such a checkered judiciousness exhibited by the electorates makes Uttar Pradesh to have more turbulence in future days.
Electorates wishing a state on road to progress should have been extremely conscious in selecting their representatives. In fact, had Election Commission brought in existence some path-breaking measures like granting option to electorates to reject the candidates then it would have led to different picture altogether. Right to recall based on evaluation of performance needs to be introduced as early as possible.
The rejection of Congress is understood as the party infatuated with ambiguous policies or because of its psuedo secular credentials has lost credibility in eyes of the electorates. I also do not agree with Rahul Gandhi's statement that it performed poorly because of its weak political networking. It flopped because of its unprincipled stand on critical issues. It would be interesting to analyze the performance of another party with strong ideological roots. I am talking about party with a difference : Bhartiya Janta Party. It's tragic that electorates are not willing to forgive the BJP for its blunders. A flexible approach on part of electorates could have not only acted as lifeline for the party but also given some new hopes to Uttar Pradesh reeling under Mayaraj or Jungleraj !
However, BJP needs to
grasp this fact very well that unless it manages to converge the
Hindu votes it would not be possible to get hold of power in UP. It
desperately needs some charismatic leaders in Uttar Pradesh who can
demonstrate dynamic tendencies than one mired in feudalistic
ethics. That's again a tough nut to crack. It needs to rebuild its
party cadres with some vision and better progressive policies. Let
it begin the homework right now.
Let the Hindu votes do not gets fragmented or divided. Let's not forget BJP has got political skill to convince the various other sections of the society including the Muslim sections that it alone is in a position to provide them a better alternative.
If Narendra Modi can perform so well in Gujarat or, for that matter, if Nitesh Kumar in Bihar can convince the electorates what's preventing the BJP from believing that it can win the electorates again in Uttar Pradesh? Learning right lessons from past blunders, it's time for BJP to be on right track once again. Lastly, about UP election results I must say , at least, for me it's hard to believe that "Naagnath" will serve our interests better than "Saanpnath". I refuse to nurture such illusions.
Voter Fraud In American Presidential Elections
Voter Fraud In
UP Assembly Elections
The Times of India
The Economic Times