Hopes that the Iranian government leadership
will soon happily stun the world with a welcome announcement can
be relegated to the realm of pipedreams and naive wishes. Let's
suppose that tomorrow Iran's supreme leader Ali Kahmenei
announces that Ali Larijani or another chosen change of face is
appointed to replace Mahmoud Ahmadinejad pending new elections.
The intention will be to cooperate with new IAEA guidelines and
lead Iran to increased economic cooperation and prosperity for
the greater good of the people of the republic. A warmer tone is
taken toward Israel and Western countries. Iran wants peace and
covertly sends agents to whisper to the West that it will
dismantle terrorist networks.
Yes, a pipedream, but many would like to see Iran grasp for the out card for the reality of what is actually coming. Here is the bleak forecast for the strike on Iranian nuclear facilities and possible scenarios in the aftermath.
- Depending on weather and the schedule of meetings of Israeli leaders on or about June 18th 2012 Israeli jets cross into Iran and strike facilities in Bushehr, Fordow, Natanz, Qom, Parchin and as well other sites. The raid succeeds in nominal loss of Israeli jets and the Iranian nuclear program is left in shambles.
- Iran declares war on Israel and threatens to strike all nations aiding them. They immediately expend between 25 to 40 % of their naval assets to close the Straits of Hormuz. Two to four ships begin mine laying operations in the Straits. Patrol boats fire C-802 guided missiles combined with land based H-2 Seersuckers and even more dangerous SS-N-22 Sunburn cruise missiles not only at opposing warships, but coordinated with several of their submarines to sink any Western flagged commercial ships and especially oil tankers. They also launch a myriad of unconventional attacks on any Western commercial or warship in their range.
- Iran also rains dozens of Sejil 2 and Shahab 3 into Israel. They are conventional and do damage even in Tel Aviv, but Iran does not use chemical or biological warheads for fear of Israeli nuclear retaliation on Tehran. They also target U.S, Naval bases in Bahrain and the U.A.E., the attack is infective as U.S. anti missile technology defeats them.
- Hezbollah begins firing rockets from Southern Lebanon into Israel by the hundreds. Hammas does likewise from Gaza. Palestinian homicide bombers attempt numerous attacks inside Israel.
- Syria with its hands full domestically is happy for the distraction and facititates the movement of Iranian weapons through the country into Lebanon to aid Hezbollah.
- Political leaders in Egypt attempt to dissolve the peace treaty with Israel and attempt to incite the Egyptian military to attack Israel. The military declines the pressure to act against Israel overtly. Covertly weapons leak trough their Gaza border to Hammas.
- Pakistan and Afghanistan declare support for Iran. No plot to smuggle nuclear weapons from Pakistan to Iran goes from idea to workable plan. Afghanistan is limited to political statements and continues to work covertly with Iranian agents.
- China limits support to Tehran to rhetoric. Consideration that U.S. congress is prepared to campaign anti Chinese legislation should financial or weapons aid be sent to Iran. China protects its own interests financially while its military leaders shout threats against Western actions.
- Turkey denounces Israel, but offers no aid to Iran.
- Russia, mighty Russia, helps Iran to bloody the nose of western military forces with intelligence and weapons aid. This is the main danger in the scenario. Estimate that Russia will maintain the same common sense that kept the Cold War cold and not evolve this into World War Three, but they will want to prove some points of the deployment of some military systems.
- Israel is damaged but satisfied that its existential threat is delayed yet again. Hundreds are killed and they eventually exit hostilities. They give the United States ample notice before they strike Iran.
- The U.S. uses the notice of the strike by Israel to position assets. Air and missile power keep almost all harm from Iran at arms length. The Strait of Hormuz is reopened. Should any pre-emptive strikes fail and leave Iranian weapons able to strike the U.S. or Allied fleet causing major damage Iranian infrastructure may be struck in retaliation.
- The Iranian leadership consolidates power over its people. More furious domestic rhetoric rails against Israel, the U.S. Britain, and other western countries. The cycle of worldwide state sponsored terrorism continues and increases. The war on terror grows to uncomfortable levels when weighed against democratic civil liberties. President Obama sits in meetings similar to the ones J.F.K. sat in during the Bay of Pigs. He takes the advice of his military and intelligence advisors agreeing to coordinate with Israel. Eisenhower's "military industrial complex" becomes more clearly the "military industrial intelligence media complex". Gasoline prices rise sharply to all time highs in the U.S. and Europe. President Obama runs as a strong national security president. If the price of oils stabilizes lowerbefore November it increases his chance for re-election.
- Some one in Iran reads this and the Supreme leader calls a press conference to do what is suggested in the first paragraph of this blog.