New Dawn

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Status: Finished  |  Genre: Non-Fiction  |  House: Booksie Classic

I wrote this back when I was a bit of a Neo-con, however, though the grammar/spelling is a bit terrible at time, I think many of the ideas/analysis of the world is still relevant. Writing papers like this on my free time helped me grasp concepts about the global/national economy and foreign relations that I didn’t know previously

PS: Bookie isn't posting my tables/projections properly, so if you want access to the tables, leave me your email in the comments bellow or private message me!

New Dawn

The 21st Century Destiny

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Examining the impacts on international and national political, economic, military, social/culture, scientific/technological, demographic, and environmental conditions from America reforming itself and the “rise of the rest”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New Dawn

The 21st Century Destiny

 

 

 

 

 

 

Examining the impacts on international and national political, economic, military, social/culture, scientific/technological, demographic, and environmental conditions and impacts from America reforming itself and the “rise of the rest”

 

 

Email: avengerlovebn@yahoo.com

Phone:

Web Address:

Date of completion: 5-15-11

Date of publishing: 5-16-11

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prologue

This report has been a more elaborate follow up to my previous report China and America over the Coming decades. Unlike the previous report, I make more accurate projections of policy reforms that the United States needs to make and more accurate analysis of these effects on the international level as well as these policy effects on the other aspects of the United States, such as the social and environmental aspects of our nation and abroad. In this report, the layout, purpose, conclusion, have been reorganized as to make this report more easy for the public at large to overview the conclusions and projections made in the report.

I hope you learn from this report, take time to research the subjects discussed on your own, become politically active, tell others about your findings, and change some of your own social and economic behaviors while encouraging other’s to do the same.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Section

Unit

Page numbers

N/A

Table of Contents

5

N/A

Definition of “Relative Power”

7

N/A

Introduction: A brief story history summarized and analyzed

8-12

1

Section 1

13

1

China’s history and culture: A mixed future of the past and modern ideas.

14-17

1

The environmental in the future.

18-21

1

Demographics: The key to growth in the future

22-25

1

SSS: Security, Space, Secret operations: The future of warfare.

26-37

1

Democratization and culture extremism: The changing political world

38-41

1

Technology; the savior of the future

42-43

1

Invisible power: The multinationals that will dominate the globe

44

2

Section 2

45

2

The Seven Reforms

46-49

2

Projections

50-60

2

The end result: 2050

61-66

2

What is in store for beyond 2050

67-68

3

Section 3

69

3

Future Events, October Surprises, and unknowns and their impact on the future

70-72

3

Summary

73

3

Individual changes

74-75

3

Credits

76-79

3

Influences

80

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Definition of “Relative Power”

Relative power is a term that has been used before, but this paper makes a clear distinction between “absolute power” and “relative power”.

Absolute power is:

*The power and influence; political, economic, militarily, culturally, socially, demographically, educationally/intellectually, and technology wise a nation posses at a moment in time.

 Relative power is:

*The power and influence; political, economic, militarily, culturally, socially, demographically, educationally/intellectually, and technology wise a nation has when compared to other nations.

An example of absolute vs. relative power is; Britain in 1850 had the most relative power of any nation at the time, but an absolute power, the modern day nation of France, with little relative power could easily beat 1850 Britain since France has more absolute power then Britain did back in 1850, despite the differences in relative power. Absolute power grows; and relative power changes. Absolute power can be measured from a mathematical point of view in some respects; relative cannot be measured from a mathematical point of view. Absolute power (in the long run) is one of increasing prosperity, where relative power is one of national pride, sense of entitlement, and is something that takes decades to change. Both are always changing, but it is important that the distinctions between the two be seen. This paper looks at both, but since absolute power in the long run usually grows, this paper emphasizes on the role and placement relative power.

 

Introduction: A brief history summarized and analyzed

After World War Two, the lone super power left standing was the United States. Some would consider the USSR a super power as well, but the United States was by far; the most powerful super power left standing. The United States power came primarily from its military (dominated air and sea power-power projection) and economy (largest markets, most resources, most money and capital, etc). From these two arms, the United States political power and culture influence grew to eventually, impact the whole world. Whether you are in China buying fast food or working for a multinational, or a Middle Eastern in the oil business, or Japanese employee for Honda, your life is affected by the United States, weather it is government regulations on imports, American consumption habits/changes, or the American stock market. American influence is beyond economic though. America is the most influential power on the planet, whether it’s political, military, culture/social, economic, or scientific/technology; we are the top power. America can project power and wields power that no other nation has ever wielded in the history of the planet, as America dominates the land, sea, air, and is starting to get into space and cyberspace. America currently has the largest consumer market, the largest stock market, and largest GDP along with its currency being the preferred reserve currency for many decades. However, America is now in an irreversible decline, due to many factors; but the main one being that America was the lone super power for the past two decades. After the USSR collapsed and broke up, the United States was the lone super power and was by far, the most powerful nation the world had ever seen.

The beginning to the end of American dominance began here. The rest of the world now saw America as the untouchable nation that was not to be challenged. This caused America foreign, fiscal, and monetary policy to lazy and geared for the short run, not the long run. In the 90’s, American foreign policy was not regarded as a major issue here or abroad due to the rest of the world trusting us and not wanting to challenge us. United States short and medium term fiscal policy was put on a sustainable path in the 90’s as most of the national debt was expected to be gone by 2010 (in 2000 with current trends and policies). Also, monetary policy lead to the lowest inflation levels in the late 90’s, even as the economy zoomed and unemployment fell drastically. However, the years 2000 to 2003 saw two wars overseas, a recession, and the creation of massive budget deficits along with very easy money policies to get the economy going again. These all created an economy that was unsustainable in the medium term and long term, which lead to the housing market troubles in 2007 and the eventual “global” recession from 2008 that still last on to today. In 2008 and 2009, at least a trillion dollars worth of bailouts and stimulus packages we spent, with trillions of more appropriated and authorized to be used, but still not spent or authorized. In 2010-2011, Europe has experienced fiscal issues that have lead to almost default and/or debt restructuring of several nations. Portugal, Greece, Spain, and Ireland remain nations on the edge that could end up defaulting on their debt obligations any month, which would lead to another series global financial crisis, and possibly, if not contained or stopped, a global depression that would affect the first world nations and emerging economies and nations. Another recent development has been the massive inflation, especially in food and energy prices around the globe, but especially in emerging economies like China and India and undeveloped economies like Egypt. As a result, so far, protests have erupted across the Middle East and have lead to the downfall of two totalitarian regimes, a civil war in Libya, and unrest in several other Middle Eastern Nations. Over the next several years, more food and energy inflation could lead to massive unrest in China and India among other nations that could cause the political/social paradigm of acceptable ideas that could lean towards the political/social paradigms moving towards nationalism, fascism, and colonialism/ “spheres of influence” that could lead to another cold war or major war between two or several of the major and/or emerging powers.

Back to the present, the past two decades were truly historical. The United States after the downfall of the USSR was the most powerful nation in the history of the planet in both absolute power and its own power relative to other nations. Our carriers, air power, and logistical/communications systems allowed us to have global reach and global strike capabilities that no nation has ever experienced before. Our currency was the global standard and our consumption became the economic engine for globalization, economic liberalization, and overall global monetary/financial stability. The ongoing recession is the first sign that have made the American people realize that the United States is in relative decline, but it wasn’t the first sign. The globalization of the 90’s was really, the first sign, followed by the massive trade/budget deficits of the 2000’s. Publically and privately, we have amassed debts worth 350% of GDP, up from around 160% in 1980 and about 230% in 1990. This has only been sustained due to foreign countries investing their savings and trade surpluses (foreign exchange reserves) back into our economy, where they often came. They did this because they relied on our consumption for their economic growth. Now, however, China, the main holder of United States public debt, is in the process of transforming their country from an export oriented style of growth economy to a domestic consumption based growth economy, which if successful, will be completed in several years (roughly 2014-2016). When the process is completed, United States consumption will no longer be needed for China to generate economic growth, thus, the funding of our debt will end and have dramatic ramifications for our economy and international power. However, this transition to a consumption based economy has put massive inflationary measures on China as there consumer market is still immature and China is currently undergoing massive interest rate hikes, reserve requirement ratio raises, and upward inflation growth with overall growth slowing down. However, the era of United States economic/financial dominance is at an end, which will lead to the end of our political, social, culture, and military dominance in the long run. The past decade has already shown that the United States, most likely, the world’s last super power, has become irrelevant in many areas. Our invasion of Iraq and using of our military to achieve political objectives over diplomatic, social, or economic means has been met with objection, but nothing else. China, Russia, Europe, India, Japan, and other major/emerging powers have not used political, economic, or military means to counter our use of military power in the Middle East and they currently show no intentions to do so. The United States and to some extent, Europe, have fallen into a political bubble where the idea that the Western dominance will always hold true, when in reality, it has been a 500-600 year blip in human history. Historically, China and/or India have been “dominant” (even though they were never able to acquire the empires that Europe managed to from 16th century Spain to 19th century Britain). Never the less, they have usually held the most “relative power” in terms of political, economic, military, technology, social/religious, and demographic power and/or influence; even though they were unable to use those to dominate the globe due to a lack of technology that would have allowed that to happen, especially logistical/communication technology. The next several decades are the most dynamic and challenging in human history, as many series issues could turn into crises, such as the transition of “relative of power”, environmental issues, social issues, and economic issues bump head to head and have the potential to lead to global war and the collapse of modern civilization. The reforms that I propose to the United States are not reforms I entirely support, due to my constitutionalist/libertarian beliefs; however, the reforms I propose later in this paper are a compromise to be accomplished by 2015 that are a compromise between a Progressive, Neo Conservative, and libertarian positions. None of the three major political ideologies will get there way entirely, but the reforms I propose are necessary for the survival of this nation. Even if only a few of the reforms are accomplished, that would greatly help this nation over the next several decades and beyond. The reforms I propose look at putting the United States on a sustainable path and will need to be carried out/supported over decades, not years.

The past two decades has been two of unbelievable historical anomalies, especially regarding the United States. We are about to see the era of the super power end and the era of “the rise of the rest” begin to show its strength. The Untied States, as the last super power; most likely in the history of mankind, be the nation with surprisingly, the brightest road map ahead and the most potential going into the coming decades, and even centuries. The United States is a one of a kind nation and culture that has never existed before and holds perhaps, the most important place in the history of man “the last best hope for a mankind plagued by tyranny and deprivation”. This quote from Ronald Reagan, however much many will disagree with on political, economic, and social issues, stated America’s purpose. America has a culture and history every other nation throughout the history of man has lacked. America was born a free nation, which has undergone a civil war and many social/civil changes that have made it as free as it is now, no matter what gender, race, or religion. America still has a long way to go, but America is an idea that was conceived centuries ago and will be the guiding light for humanities march to true freedom and real prosperity into the future.

 

 

Section 1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

China’s history and culture: A mixed future of the past and modern ideas.

Before going into China’s modern culture, China’s past history/culture and the origins of the modern Chinese nation state must be looked at and examined. The high point of Chinese relative power was during the early part of the Ming Dynasty (1368 to 1480), when China discovered America; Chinese delegations reached Italy and exchanged knowledge, and Chinese fleets and explores mapped most of the world. When Columbus sailed for America, he already had knowledge of America and had a map of America in 1474, 18 years before Columbus set sail for America! There is evidence suggesting that a much older civilization could have previously mapped and explored the world, but for the purposes of this paper, we will stick to China having been the first to map most of the world. During this time frame, the great walls were rebuilt, China experienced massive agriculture food surpluses, and thus, economic growth and increased prosperity resulted, the forbidden city was established, a million man army creation, the largest navy every built in history (at that point in time), and the first civilization that is known to have been global in scale. Chinese ships reached Italy, providing Europeans with knowledge that ignited the renaissance, and gave Europeans maps that allowed them to later “discover” the America’s and thus, stimulate the process of European empire creation that four centuries later, lead to European dominance of the world, including China. Under the Ming dynasty, China had perhaps, been the first “super power”. China couldn’t create military power influence beyond East Asia (minus its navy), but its intellectual power/influence spread (and had been for centuries) to Europe, thus, igniting the renaissance movement, which is perhaps, the event that made the modern world possible. However, political upheaval in the form of barbarian invasions, civil war, anti economic/social growth policies, the “little ice age”, and eventual economic breakdown lead to the end of this dynasty and thus, the end of the first super power. After centuries of economic/social stagnation and political/environmental turmoil, a century of humiliation by European powers and Japan against China was perhaps, China’s low point. Tens of millions, if not hundreds of millions of Chinese lost their lives during this period due to famines, invasions/wars, the “great leap forward”, and other catastrophes. However, ever since 1979, China has put itself back on track to prosperity, with early agreements with the United States, economic liberalization, and this has resulted in rapidly growing absolute power (on the national level, on the individual level, gains have not been growing as fast and have not been shared) and ever so slowly growing relative power (until the past several years). This has put China on a path that will lead to China’s GDP surpassing America’s by 2027 if not earlier from a nominal GDP perspective (2016 when looking at purchasing power) and will lead to China’s GDP being about double of ours by 2050, making China the economic super power in raw GDP terms (even though per person GDP will still lag behind most developed nations). This alone, however, even if it were sustainable, would not guarantee China as a super power in terms of relative power.

 

Much of modern Chinese culture/political influences originate from Confucius and Sun Tzu. Confucius was a Chinese philosopher that looked at individual, collective, and government mortality, virtues, and ethics. He believed that everyone should work towards bettering the collective and the government should be rather authoritarian to better society, but the government also had a responsibility to provide for the common good. If the government failed, the individuals in the society had the divine right to revolt and replace the government. Modern China is ruled by a government that is creating high rates of economic growth, which is seen by many in China as the government carrying out its responsibility and the government is keeping order by controlling free speech, the media, and having a police state. For Westerners, the idea that the Chinese government is carrying out its moral responsibilities is outrageous and untrue, in China, the idea is somewhat acceptable since the government is also creating prosperity for the nation (from an economic standpoint. The ecosystem’s in China are either imploding or on the verge of imploding, possibly leading to environmental crisis and catastrophes in the future that will destabilize China). However, modern technology and ideas are mixing with old ones, and many young Chinese are optimistic about their countries rise to power.

 

81% of Chinese are saying that there economic conditions are getting better, while in the same poll, only 30% of American’s said there economic conditions were getting better. This, of course, only looks at only economics and looks at individual’s perceptions, not facts or trends; but this poll by Gallup only shows to prove that China is very optimistic about its future. Optimism also leads to increased self respect, and thus pride and patriotism. China in the past several years has seen protests against foreign actions by hyper nationalist movements in China that have been almost fascist in nature from an ideological perspective. With new ideas’ about nationalism entering China, old ideas are mixing with new and these mixed ideas are mixing with trends in political influence and military build up to present a lethal dose of possible nationalism and major military/political aggression over the next several years and decades. With China as the biggest relative power in the future, such a large nation in terms of relativity with an appetite for expansion could lead to the political destabilization of the international political system and war’s over resources, especially water, food, and energy related resources. China, as a major global power in the future if not the biggest power in terms of absolute and relative power will make decisions that could affect and trigger responses by other nations, even in a world where the super powers are becoming irrelevant. How? When a power is rising, it is usually more feared, watched, and countered by other nations; especially establishment powers, such as the United States. Given the unique conditions of the future, with ever scarcer supplies of water, food, and energy along with other resources that not only China is competing for these resources, but so are India, Brazil, the establishment powers, and a host of dozens of other nations, a world where there are more counter acting forces could produce a result where the counter acting forces counter act each other instead of the rising power or most powerful nation and disputes and misunderstandings can easily get out of hand and lead to war’s.

The environmental in the future.

Over the past decades, the environment of the Earth has been under pressure on a global, like nothing seen before. Islands of garbage have formed in the ocean, chemicals have been released into the air, ocean, and land and have to some extent, modified the genetic code of life on Earth. Pollution, especially in emerging economies has devastated the health of millions of humans and reduced air quality. Water is being wasted and polluted while it’s being used faster than it is being replaced. The arable land in many emerging and undeveloped nations, especially in Africa and china, is being shrinking year by year, and according to the UN IPPC panel along with other scientist and scientific institutions, increasing CO2 emissions have been warming the planet and are going to significantly and irreversible change the climate (there are scientists and scientific bodies that reject this claim, even I question this, but for the purposes of simplicity among other reasons, we will leave those arguments out of this paper). Over the next couple decades, many ecosystems are expected to fail, leading to dozens if not hundreds or even thousands of major environmental catastrophes that will lead to the depletion of resources to such an extent that many hundreds of millions if not billions will have either be on the verge of starvation, be constantly dehydrated, or starve to death or die of thirst. The solutions to these problems are

(1) Find more productive ways of using the resources we have

(2) Use Less resources on a per person/capital basis

(3) Reduce the population

(4) Find new sources and alternatives.

At least two out of the four options will have to be used, and a serious international effort using treaties, not international agencies will have implemented to reduce the consequences or past/current actions and to reduce the amount of future environmental destruction.

(1) The first option has been at work for centuries; due to technology advancements, and has always worked. However, the rate of increasing productivity is not high enough and cannot alone, be implemented. Other options must be used as well in combination with this one. However, increasing commodity prices will increase productivity in the long run; thus, short term spikes in commodities that make the commodity expensive over a period of years are good in the long run.

(2) Reducing per capital resource usage is a great strategy. However, to avoid declines in living standards (from an economic standpoint); productivity will have to keep up with reduced resource usage. Per capital resource usage declining can be only be effectively accomplished using taxes and social movements/organizations.

(3) Due to current social and moral standards and demographic trends, reducing the world’s population enough to cause significant changes in future resource use and environmental destruction would require some combination the following that would result in the deaths of possibly, billions of people

  1. War and/or civil war
  2. An Epidemic/Plague
  3. Eugenics/genocide
  4. Death Panels/ poisoning
  5. New Religion that advocates self destruction (suicide)
  6. Mass Starvation or Mass die off due to lack of water
  7. Sterilization/ forced abortions

These ideas of how to reduce the Earth’s population are totally socially, morally, and politically unacceptable and thus, will not be implemented (at least in the public eye) and thus, eliminating one of the options.

(4) The last option is one that sadly, many people say will save us. Many people expect that we will always find more oil and resources and that alternatives will always be found. Both are true, but alternatives in order to make a difference, must…

  1. Be economical
  2. Be less environmentally devastating then the primary/original resource used
  3. Have quantity

Other sources of resources will be found, but will be less economical as they will be harder and harder to acquire.

The two most likely to work will be the first two options. The third option is off the table and the last one will also be one that should be used. A per capital resource reduction of around 2.5-5% a year for a period of two decades could ward off many environmental catastrophes. A simple sales tax could accomplish this, since consumption is the use of resources and a sales tax reduces consumption and increases investment, which increases productivity. A consequence of this could be an economy with high structural unemployment though.

One idea to reduce CO2 concentration in the atmosphere could be to plant giant tree farms. This would decrease CO2, increase Oxygen, and creates many other environmental benefits. A plan where fossil fuel consumption or production/extraction is taxed and some of the revenue goes to planting tree farms to offset the CO2 emissions is a great idea that I recommend as part of my energy reform policy later in this paper.

GDP growth will slow in the short run with less consumption, but per person living standards could avoid decline (from an economic standpoint) by the investments generating increased productivity and thus, cheaper consumption that is less resource consuming.

However, the solutions must be global, and must include established powers and emerging powers. Any global agreement must include China, India, and the United States, along with dozens of other nations. Such solutions will be difficult for India and China, but China is also dealing with the possible total implosion of its environment over the coming decades, which will derail its economic growth. Flaws that many economists make is that they fail to look at are the current economic projections are unsustainable environmentally, let alone economically.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Demographics: The key to growth in the future

Throughout the developed world, the populations are aging rapidly, causing unsustainable trends in fiscal (health/pension liabilities being due, less tax revenue) and overall national financial systems (plummeting savings rate, out paying pensions, lower worker to retired ratio, etc). The same thing is happening in both Brazil and Russia and more importantly, in China. China’s workforce, along with most of Europe’s, Japan, South Korea, and dozens of emerging nations are expected to shrink in the coming decades drastically, while the United States and India are the only major power’s of the future that are expected to experience workforce increases, the United States for immigration and India for high fertility rates. These demographic trends in most of the world will lead to lower growth rates and indebtedness, which will push up global interest rates and lead to even less growth. China, a nation that many fear will be a future military adversary, will find it difficult to support such a military with aging population, even with the increased nationalism discussed earlier. Demographics is America’s secret weapon that will help save us in the long run.

 

 

Europe is on a somewhat sustainable path from an overall perspective, but has little time left to deal with its future liabilities and will face either stagnation or slow growth going into the future (minus Britain and Russia). Britain won’t stagnate due to its high immigration/ fertility rates (when compared to mainland Europe) and Russia wont stagnate due to its exports of resources and will remain continue to grow at medium to high rates. China will experience lower growth rates going into the future, but these will be even lower due to a variety of factors, including massive pension liabilities, less workforce participation, growing health care costs associated with sickness and age, and it’s labor force shrinking with few young workers. Perhaps between 2030-2040, China will experience similar growth rates to the United States at the time and will stagnate shortly after, with India the United States and India edging closer and closer to surpassing China. Japan is expected to stagnate, however, with the ever rising value of the yen and Japan a constant trade surplus nation and the threat of China’s military every growing (triggering a military modernization and economic renewal), Japan could experience moderate growth rates into the future, despite a huge increase in elderly people and decrease in the work force that will last for decades.

India will become a major power based on its reliable supply of massive amounts of young workers entering the work force over the coming decades, which will keep India’s economic composition relatively the same over the coming decades. This will keep economic growth rates constantly high for decades, making India more attractive as a long term investment then China, since India is also more culturally, socially, environmentally, and political stable the China and has more sustainable growth rates.

The United States is a nation built on immigrants, and will continue to have to rely on immigrants for economic growth. America’s fertility rate has only been slightly higher than Europe’s and without immigration over the past several decades; much of our economic growth would have been canceled out. Though major fiscal reforms are needed to reduce and eliminate our entitlement liabilities, more immigration can buy us time and ease the burden of the liabilities in the future

 

The worker to retired ratio is only expected to drop from slightly above 3 currently to 2 by 2080, much better then what other countries, especially in Japan and Europe are going to experience, and reforming the immigration system to get rid of the paper work, legal costs, and hassle could keep out worker to retired ratio from falling below 2.5, something many politicians don’t talk about. Also, immigration and demographically strong nations tend to innovate more and produce more ideas, which mean more industry and international capital, which will increase GDP growth and ease the debt burdens of the future.

Africa and the Middle East (minus Israel) are expected to be demographically vibrant for decades, but only due to the constant warfare, poverty, higher fertility/death rates, and other problems will persist. The situation in Africa will most likely change in the next century, while the Middle East will most likely, never change in terms of culture and absolute power. The main problem with Africa is its history and totally unstable political institutions and constant warfare. The Middle East has a population where many are taken care of and the economic growth of these economies has been retarded as they have growth wealthy off of oil revenue, not actually manufacturing goods and services to sell. This means that that population is taken care and industry does not pop up because there is no need for it, so when the oil dries up, the region will return to poverty. As alternative energy and electricity and mass transit start to replace oil, oil prices will stagnate, forcing the Middle East to go back into poverty. The Middle East is in a unique circumstance, where the culture for reasons not fully understood by outsiders, is not growth friendly and thus, poverty and thus, high fertility rates will continue to persist.

 

 

 

 

 

SSS: Security, Space, Secret operations: The future of warfare.

The future of warfare will be dramatically different from today’s warfare, in both strategic goals/purposes of war and the weapons used. This century will be the century that large standing armies will become obsolete in major wars between the major powers; though large standing armies can still be used by major powers against non major power nations. This is not to say that land forces are obsolete, but the armies will have to be reorganized and have new objectives, purposes, weapons, tactics, and relationships with the other military branches (air force, navy, space, etc). The four major branches of each military that are likely to see the most combat going into the future are:

  1. Space
  2. Special Forces/ black operation forces
  3. Blue water naval forces
  4. Cyber security
  5. Strategic Air Power

(1): The space arm will not be apparent or significant with most nations, but will be a luxury for the major powers. Space based weapons, such as kinetic strike weapons, missile defense satellites, communications/spy/information satellites, space stations/platforms, and Trans air/space vehicles will be used. Perhaps the most important weapons will be kinetic strike weapons based in space.

“Rods of God” are perhaps, the most widely known version of a kinetic strike weapon. A Rod of God in many concepts is a twin satellite system, with one pinpointing the target and the other with the payload; 20 foot long tungsten rods. Each ‘rod’ would be able to create the force of a nuclear explosion and penetrate dozens if not hundreds of feet or earth, all without the radiation, EMP, or fallout of nuclear weapons. ‘Rods of God’ are the ultimate weapon of the future, able to destroy a whole army, city, underground bunker, and de-moralize a whole nation without the political/environmental/military ramifications of a nuclear weapon being used. However, these weapons are currently, decades in the future and many problems exist, such as the cost or putting such weapons into space, the politics of such a move, and weather the rod’s could hit their target accurately and without burning up in the atmosphere. However, if these problems can be solved, it should be remembered that ‘Rods of God’ would only be vulnerable to anti satellite weapons, EMP’s, and once launched, the rods (assuming they didn’t burn up in the atmosphere) would be unstoppable. Currently, the United States is the only nation that could conceivably have the capacity and/or need to use such weapons.

 

 

Missile Defense contrary to belief, is not a theoretical concept and has been used in the past (first gulf war) and is actually, fairly effective currently. Patriot missiles were used to shoot down SCUD’s launched by Iraq to Israel and since then, lasers that can destroy low flying missiles have been developed, with examples including

  1. Advanced Tactical Laser (Example: Boeing YAL-1): A laser fitted onto an aircraft that can shoot down missiles that are headed into space or at aircraft and can even disable and/or destroy low earth orbit satellites. Even though testing and use has been limited, the promise this technology holds is great and the United States currently has a monopoly on this technology. A massive Research and Development, testing, and development funding effort could lead to the United States dominating the future of anti missile, satellite, and laser warfare

 

  1. Tactical High Energy Laser: A ground based laser that can destroy artillery rockets, low flying missiles, artillery shells, motor shells, and is mobile. This weapons held a promising future until it was dis-continued in 2006; however, a new replacement, the “High Energy Liquid Laser Area Defense System” has been developed that is more effective and is meant to be used by both ground based platforms and aircraft.
  2. Space based lasers: Though only theoretical and projected to be expensive with the possibility of being ineffective, but could be highly effective at destroying ICBM,s once launched, satellites, and even high flying aircraft and space platforms. However, mobile ground based lasers could be effective at taking out these satellites and cyber warfare could cause these satellites to be disabled or reprogrammed to be used against the original builders.

Space stations/platforms will be important aspects of space infrastructure. Such objects could be used to deploy space based weapons and that can fulfill the functions of missile defense, kinetic strike, and as a platform for Tran’s air-space vehicles. Such objects could also serve as support and repair facilities for satellites and command platforms for nation states and military command.

Tran’s air-space vehicles will be few in quantity, but can be used for rapid deployment for Special Forces, transportation vehicles to and from space stations/platforms to other space stations/platforms and satellites back to airbases. Though such aircraft are still on the drawing board and each one will have a cost in the billions if not tens of billions of dollars along with high maintance costs, these aircraft will have advanced capabilities that will make them the envy of the any major power.

(2) Special forces/ black operations forces will be perhaps, the forces that see the most action of the future and will be the first forces in and out of any conflict. Special Forces will be acting in a direct way, helping lesser powers with wars, securing strategic locations, raiding strategic locations, guerrilla warfare, and aiding other arms of the military in accomplishing military objectives. Black operations forces will be working under the guides of intelligence, counter intelligence, counter terrorism, and carrying out objectives and missions related to assassination, sabotage, and protection or classified areas, material, and missions. Special Forces and black operations forces will aid each other and work together.

(3) Blue Water Naval Forces: Blue water naval forces will be the core of power projection and global strike capabilities going into the coming decades, even as the other branches (especially space) take on more strategic roles. At the core of the blue naval water force is the super carrier. Super carriers will be organized into carrier groups and amphibious landings/ overseas deployment logistical support will be provided by carrier groups and MOB (Mobile Offshore Base) groups.

Carrier groups will be the main way of providing power projection, security to overseas deployed forces, aid to allies, and the defense and/or acquisition of strategic air/water areas. Each carrier group will have

Super Carriers

1-2

Tanker/rearmament ships

2+

Cruisers

2-3

Auxiliary/support ships

1+

Destroyers

3+

Attack Submarines

2+

Frigates/Escorts

2+

Missile Submarines

1+

 

The super carriers will provide the air support to other forces and provide some air protection to the overall carrier group. Cruisers will provide anti space, missile, and air weapons. Destroyers will provide anti ship, air, and missile capabilities, while escorts/frigates will supplement the anti air/missile role while providing anti satellite support. The attack submarines will provide anti submarine/ anti ship and reconnaissance roles while missile submarines will take on anti land, anti missile/satellites, and anti ship roles. The other ships will provide fuel, rearmament, auxiliary, logistical, supplies, health, reconnaissance, and support capabilities. The super carriers, submarines, and cruisers should be all nuclear powered while some of the destroyers should have the nuclear power, but it is not required. Each carrier group must have weapons, supplies, training, and endurance to fight 24 hours a day for two weeks time without relief or outside support, which will make carrier groups hard to destroy, flexible, durable, and essential in future warfare.

A MOB group will be something only the wealthiest of the wealthy nations will be able to afford, but each one, even though not as mobile and/or flexible as a carrier group, will be essential in invasions of other countries and support for allies and/or deployed forces overseas. A MOB is a concept discussed from the late 90’s to today as a possible way for the United States to have a mobile ocean base that could provide the logistical and air support to deploy and support forces overseas. Such bases are technologically feasible, with the concerns being economic and effectiveness. The cost for a MOB with twice the surface area of a Nimitz class aircraft carrier would be somewhere around 1-2 billion United States dollars, while several of these MOB’s combined together could deploy and support 3000 troops, hundreds of aircraft, and provide logistical support (fuel, ammunition, food/water, etc) for weeks. However, a Global Security Report said that more cost effective solutions already existed to the problem of needing a mobile base. However, going into the future, such bases will be used, not only due to their capabilities, but also the psychological implications of such a weapon. Any MOB naval group would un-doubtfully need several if not dozens of cruiser, destroyer, submarine, escort, and frigate protection ships, but auxiliary, logistical, tanker, and other support ships would be unnecessary.

A carrier group and MOB group working together could provide the force needed to take over any non major power country in a matter of weeks if not days (depending on the size of the country and the size of its population) as the geography of the countries landscape would not be a major obstacle. Hundreds of Special Forces troops with hundreds of support aircraft and thousands of missile/drone strikes would easily overwhelm a small country within days.

Two new types of ships might be able to revolutionize our naval/anti missile/air/space/land strike capabilities

(4): Cyber Security: Though not as big of a battle ground as many military experts might say, cyber security will be a major battle ground going into the future. The future of cyber security will revolve around the ability to defend and attack/disable the enemy in these sectors:

*Communications

*Intelligence

*Space

*Electricity/ water treatment infrastructure

*Financial system

*Information/knowledge

*Health care

(5) Strategic Air Power: Strategic Air Power will rely mainly on 5th and 6th generation aircraft, transportation aircraft, strategic bombing aircraft, and advanced/large “gunship” aircraft.

5th generation are currently being delivered right now. They are stealthy, fast, and able to perform advanced maneuvers, and higher advanced with the ability to easily communicate and aid other aircraft with finding targets and avoiding hazards. 6th generation aircraft are currently on the drawing board and are not expected to be in need until at the earliest, 2025, but will most likely be unmanned, have more stealth capabilities, more advanced avionics maneuvers and capabilities and possibly have laser/direct energy weapons. These aircraft will undoubtfully, cost billions a piece and will not be available for at least two decades, but will be the masters of the skies and revolutionary.

`Transportation aircraft will change little in terms of design (with the exception of possible defensive/offensive weapons and stealth capabilities, but nevertheless, will provide nations with global deployment capabilities and the ability to sustain military operations overseas.

Strategic bombers such as the B-2 will continue to be in use for decades, but a possible bomber that will be used in the future (2037 bomber) will have to have the qualities of stealth, hypersonic, heavy payload/long range, and possibly being unmanned. However, these maybe the last generation of bombers, as Tran’s air-space aircraft and space based weapons will likely make strategic bombers obsolete after this generation of strategic bombing has completed their useful life.

Large/advanced Gunships will be vital in the support of ground forces and the deployment of forces. Equipped with laser/high energy weapons, cannons, missiles, and cannons/machine guns, fortifications, troops, logistical vehicles, and ground vehicles will be torn up by such weapons.

A scenario where all of these branches of the future military are used in conjunction against a heavily defended terrorist held strategic center is envisioned on the following pages.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Setting

2040- The “Black Hyper”, a terrorist group with cyber capabilities has been using an underground Somalia command bunker to launch attacks against the United States financial markets and is about to use an acquired nuclear weapon to blow a Saudi city to start a Middle East War. Other nations are unwilling to intervene and/or stop this group, leaving the United States to prevent this from happening.

Operation “Demon Destruction

The joint special forces, naval, air, cyber, and space branch attack on the Somalia capital of Mogadishu, where intelligence from black operations forces has revealed the main Black Hyper group is at and where the nuclear weapon is currently, the underground bunkers location information is with the nuclear device.

Week leading up to Demon Destruction

Three MOB groups and a carrier group are assembled 50 miles of Somalia near Yemen while two kinetic strike satellites are positioned to be above Somalia, where the underground bunker is expected to be. Dozens of air force aircraft and thousands of special forces units are put onto the MOB groups. Intelligence says Russian military has sold the terrorist group anti satellite and anti air missiles, making operational planning harder.

Before Day 1:

10:00 -20:00 hours

United States B-2 and “2037 bombers” take off from various United States air bases with several refueling and EW (Electronic warfare) aircraft and two gunships that get permission to enter the airspace of several African nations and have permission to loiter in Ethiopian air space until operation beings. Three MOB groups and carrier group leave Yemen to position themselves 20 miles off coast of Somalia capital.

Day 1:

06:00-06:05 hours

B-2 and “2037 bombers” hit varies terrorist groups communications, command, radar, and anti air missile sites, but only get a few anti satellite weapons sites. Bombers begin slow journey back to United States. Gunships, some refueling aircraft, and EW aircraft remain in Ethiopian

Day 1:

07:00 hours

MOB and carrier groups unleash 150 fighters, drones, and strike aircraft to take out terrorist ground vehicles, remaining anti air sites, and soften up fortifications. The air strikes are over within ten minutes.

Day 1:

07:20 hours

100 helicopters carrying 2500 special forces troops drop off special forces teams so that they surround the city and 500 troops are dropped off in the middle of the city, near the presidential palace, where intelligence has determined the location of the nuclear device and underground bunker location information to be. Gunships are called in to support troops along with dozens of stealth attack helicopters while EW aircraft disrupt all remaining communications between terrorists in the city.

Day 1:

08:30 hours

The presidential palace has been taken over and the city has been completely surrounded with special forces teams slowly moving into the city. No information or nuclear device is found.

Day 1:

11:00 hours

2000 additional special forces troops are brought in by helicopter to take the town of Bosaso, a Somali town to the north of the capital, where the nuclear device is expected to be.

Day 1:

16:00 hours

(4 :00PM)

The nuclear device is found and secured in Bosaso; however, further information has been discovered that suggests the terrorist group is planning to take out some of the United States space infrastructure and naval ships.

Day 1:

16:30 hours

(4:30 pm)

A submarine is detected 100 miles to the east of the MOB and carrier groups, and shortly after detection, 30 missiles are detected, coming from the submarine to the carrier group, which gives the carrier group five minutes to respond.

Day 1

16:33-16:35 hours

(4:31 -4:34pm)

The carrier groups EW aircraft manage to force the electronics of five of the missiles computers to crash and cause the missiles to fall into the ocean. 20 more missiles are intercepted and destroyed by 25 anti missile missiles launched by the cruisers and destroyers at the incoming missiles, the remaining 3 missiles are destroyed by the lasers 10 miles out, but the other two have smart computers and detect/avoid the lasers. Two Phalanx CIWS anti missile/air close in defense weapons manages to take out the remaining two missiles, an attack submarine and dozen carrier aircraft are sent to find and destroy the submarine.

Day 1:

17:00 hours

(5pm)

The submarine is found and destroyed, but before it is destroyed, it launches 4 anti satellite missiles, aimed at USS. Megan, a space platform that houses 20% of the United States cyber security defensive framework

Day 1

17:05-17:10 hours

(5:05 to 5:10pm)

An anti missile satellite targets and destroys all four missiles aimed at the USS. Megan.

Day 1:

18:00 hours

(6pm)

The location of the underground command bunker has been discovered through cyber securities “offensive” efforts (Hacking into the Russia defense ministry foreign aid department and discovering Russian aid to the terrorist group and also discovering the location of the bunker in the process) Immediately, a tungsten rod is launched from an orbiting Rods of God satellites, taking just minutes to reach the ground, and destroy the underground bunker.

Day 2:

05:00 hours

The terrorist group leadership has been mainly killed by the kinetic strike, special forces ground operations, air/naval airstrikes, and black operations forces in various countries assassinations. The group is rendered almost useless. Special forces troops pull out of Somalia and the military forces start returning to America.

Day 50

14:00 hours

(2pm)

A report on the operation states that the operation had cost 2.8 billion dollars (2010 dollars) had left 3 American military personal dead, 56 wounded, none missing, but the operation was successful as 95% of the terrorist leadership was eliminated and 70% of the terrorist groups members were killed that day, and the terrorist group had fragmented.

Operation Demon Destruction=Successful.

 

As the scenario demonstrated, the combined use of the five future major branches of the future military worked together well and succeeded in the objectives and went above and beyond. However, a scenario in which major powers go to war with each other would be almost impossible to describe in detail, would result in high human/financial costs, and would not be as clear cut and successful. Overall, however, the future weapons worked in this scenario and will work in the future when they are used, weather against terrorists, trouble causing nations, or major powers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Democratization and culture extremism: The changing political world

As modern global civilization moves forward and hundreds of millions are lifted out of poverty and per person incomes rise to middle class levels in many countries; social movements for democracy, freedom, safety nets, income redistribution, and environmental protection. These five demands will also be accompanied by the cultures of many current third world and emerging nations changing and splitting into at least four different groups;

  1. Leftists: People that believe the original culture did more bad then good and that freedom of expression is good and economic growth is somewhat bad as the environment is being destroyed and income equality is increasing.
  2. Traditional: People that believe that original values of the culture going back decades and centuries should be restored and the changes are leading to the moral decay of society.
  3. Moderates: People that see the changes as ok and globalization as good believe in moving the country forward politically and economically in order to make the nation wealthy.
  4. Nationalists: People that believe that there nation should start using their emerging power and wealth to build a military and gain access to natural resources, are heavily nationalist and believe that the military of the country should be built up and believe there county has a destiny to be powerful and obstacles should be removed through military force.

There four groups will shape the politics of a country tremendously, as various culture groups make temporary alliances with one another to accomplish economic/social/political aims. In many nations, these alliances and confrontations with other culture groups in a nation will lead to civil riots and unrest, perhaps in a few third world nations, civil war and political coups.

In China; the fourth group and first group will be the major groups that determine the fate of the nation. Personal Optimism in China is running at 80%, compared with fewer than 40% (half of 80%) in America, making China perhaps, the most confident nation going into the next couple decades. This confidence is showing up in Chinese political/culture ideology, as some Chinese see China as a super power that should act like the Europeans did from 1500 to 1900 and form an empire. This view, however, is different then what Chinese culture for thousands of years has believed and done. The Ming dynasty during its explorations and economic expansion in the 15th century didn’t believe in establishing a military empire, only in developing political ties, trade, and gaining knowledge/sharing knowledge. The fourth group, after seeing what the Europeans were able to do, want China to grow as powerful and develop its own empire (some of this is also due to government brainwashing and economic power/development). On the other hand, economic development has lead to a strong and growing middle class that is to the left on the political spectrum and could be the force that changes China from a totalitarian state on a path of unsustainable growth to a democracy and sustainable growth. However, the odds are stacked against them, at least in the short term and democratizing minus a catastrophic event or massive civil unrest is unlikely to happen. If china does democratize, it will most likely be after 2020.

In Europe, stagnation is the future, and many Europeans are now heavily divided against one another. Many see the cause of stagnation due to foreigners, some to corporations, some to the EU, and some say that free loaders are the reason for stagnation and Europeans relative power decline. There are three reasons why Europe is declining in terms of relative power

  1. Demographics
  2. Economic policies
  3. Lack of direction

Europe’s labor pool is expected to decline tremendously over the next decades, at a similar rate as Japans (minus Britain) and thus, economic growth will be harder and harder to achieve and that national savings/assets are drained and public debt rises. Also, Many Europeans are unwilling (mainly the fourth and second culture groups) are anti immigrant and thus, immigration to help relieve some of the demographic stress on Europe will be near to impossible.

Europe has a single monetary unit (minus Britain, Sweden, and a few other nations), but not a single fiscal union. Over the past decade, this lack of standard policies has lead to the massive debt increases of most European nations that in 2010, reached a tipping pointing Greece with a “sovereign debt crisis” that has spread to other European nations and is still around. The only result has been bailouts, bailout funds, interest rates hikes, credit rating downgrades, civil unrest, and the constant potential for several nations to default any day.

Europe also lacks direction: does Europe want to develop a stronger European Union and transfer some political/fiscal power and decision making to a supra national organization or do the European nations want to regain monetary control and dissolve the EU? Perhaps, a third way, of European fragmentation into several regional supra national organizations that have strong fiscal/monetary powers will develop. A likely scenario/outcome will be that the EU will dissolve by 2015 and four mini political unions with stronger powers take its place.

  1. Northern European Alliance (NEA)-Sweden, Norway, Finland, Baltic countries, Denmark, Iceland, Perhaps Germany and Poland.
  2. Southern European Alliance (SEA)-Italy, Balk land nations, Spain, Portugal, and perhaps some Eastern European nations.
  3. Central European Alliance (CEA)-France, Germany, Low countries, other central and perhaps Eastern European nations.
  4. Atlantic Alliance (AA)-Britain, Ireland, perhaps some Scandinavian nations.

The exact names such as “Northern European Alliance” are unlikely, but what is certain is that due to demographic and fiscal/economic pressure, political unions will form to ease these strains and eventually, these unions will unite into a new single European union sometime before 2050. Europe is too far down the path of economic stagnation and demographic trap to avoid being drawn into Political Unions and lose of sovereign economic control in some fields such as monetary and fiscal policy. Such stagnation leading to supra national unions will lead to fourth and second culture groups being frightened and concerned and starts identifying enemies besides politicians, such as the first and third culture groups. Civil unrest and crime could spike in the short term against these culture groups and foreigners.

Many other nations have these same issues, especially in Latin America and the Middle East, but not the extent (in the future) as China and Europe do and the culture conflicts and democratization attempts and possible events in these nations will not effect and influence global events and global power as European/China will.

 

 

 

 

 

Technology; the savior of the future

&n


Submitted: November 14, 2015

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